Home * Engine Testing * Match Statistics * LOS Table

After a tournament between two engines is over one can deduct the likelihood of superiority [1] of one engine over the other by consulting the following table. The first column gives the score difference (wins - losses), the next columns give the LOS for a certain number of games. The table was calculated for a draw ratio of 32%.

Table


10
50
100
200
500
1000
0
50.00%
50.00%
50.00%
50.00%
50.00%
50.00%
1
64.51%
56.77%
54.81%
53.41%
52.16%
51.53%
2
77.22%
63.34%
59.55%
56.80%
54.32%
53.06%
3
86.95%
69.55%
64.16%
60.14%
56.46%
54.58%
4
93.43%
75.24%
68.57%
63.40%
58.58%
56.09%
5
97.14%
80.32%
72.73%
66.57%
60.68%
57.60%
6
98.95%
84.71%
76.60%
69.63%
62.75%
59.10%
7
99.68%
88.40%
80.14%
72.55%
64.78%
60.58%
8
99.93%
91.41%
83.34%
75.33%
66.77%
62.05%
9
99.99%
93.80%
86.19%
77.96%
68.72%
63.50%
10
100.00%
95.64%
88.69%
80.41%
70.61%
64.93%
11

97.02%
90.85%
82.69%
72.45%
66.34%
12

98.01%
92.68%
84.80%
74.23%
67.73%
13

98.71%
94.23%
86.72%
75.95%
69.09%
14

99.19%
95.50%
88.48%
77.60%
70.43%
15

99.50%
96.54%
90.06%
79.19%
71.74%
16

99.71%
97.37%
91.48%
80.71%
73.02%
17

99.83%
98.03%
92.74%
82.16%
74.27%
18

99.91%
98.55%
93.85%
83.54%
75.49%
19

99.95%
98.94%
94.82%
84.85%
76.68%
20

99.97%
99.24%
95.67%
86.08%
77.84%
21

99.99%
99.46%
96.41%
87.25%
78.96%
22

99.99%
99.62%
97.03%
88.35%
80.05%
23

100.00%
99.74%
97.57%
89.38%
81.11%
24


99.82%
98.02%
90.34%
82.12%
25


99.88%
98.40%
91.23%
83.11%
26


99.92%
98.71%
92.07%
84.06%
27


99.95%
98.97%
92.84%
84.97%
28


99.97%
99.18%
93.55%
85.85%
29


99.98%
99.36%
94.21%
86.69%
30


99.99%
99.50%
94.81%
87.50%
31


99.99%
99.61%
95.36%
88.27%
32


100.00%
99.70%
95.86%
89.01%
33



99.77%
96.32%
89.71%
34



99.82%
96.74%
90.38%
35



99.87%
97.11%
91.02%
36



99.90%
97.45%
91.62%
37



99.93%
97.76%
92.20%
38



99.95%
98.03%
92.74%
39



99.96%
98.28%
93.26%
40



99.97%
98.50%
93.74%
41



99.98%
98.69%
94.20%
42



99.98%
98.86%
94.63%
43



99.99%
99.02%
95.04%
44



99.99%
99.15%
95.42%
45



99.99%
99.27%
95.78%
46



100.00%
99.37%
96.11%
47




99.46%
96.42%
48




99.54%
96.72%
49




99.61%
96.99%
50




99.67%
97.24%
51




99.72%
97.47%
52




99.76%
97.69%
53




99.80%
97.89%
54




99.83%
98.08%
55




99.86%
98.25%
56




99.88%
98.41%
57




99.90%
98.56%
58




99.92%
98.69%
59




99.93%
98.82%
60




99.94%
98.93%
61




99.95%
99.03%
62




99.96%
99.13%
63




99.97%
99.22%
64




99.97%
99.29%
65




99.98%
99.37%
66




99.98%
99.43%
67




99.99%
99.49%
68




99.99%
99.54%
69




99.99%
99.59%
70




99.99%
99.64%
71




99.99%
99.68%
72




100.00%
99.71%
73





99.74%
74





99.77%
75





99.80%
76





99.82%
77





99.84%
78





99.86%
79





99.88%
80





99.89%
81





99.91%
82





99.92%
83





99.93%
84





99.94%
85





99.94%
86





99.95%
87





99.96%
88





99.96%
89





99.97%
90





99.97%
91





99.98%
92





99.98%
93





99.98%
94





99.98%
95





99.99%
96





99.99%
97





99.99%
98





99.99%
99





99.99%
100





99.99%
101





99.99%
102





100.00%

Forum Posts


References

  1. ^ Likelihood of superiority by Marco Costalba, CCC, November 15, 2009
  2. ^ Type I and type II errors from Wikipedia

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